Monday, April 4, 2016

Actionable Intelligence


What you don't know, CAN hurt you, especially when disaster is looming.  Ignorance is not bliss, but rather deadly in a SHTF scenario.

Actionable Intelligence is a term used by the intelligence profession which is defined as information that can be acted upon to either change the course of events or allow you time to prepare


The Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 resulted in about 8,000 fatalities which is the deadliest natural disaster to ever hit the United States. All because no one knew it was coming, until it was too late. There was no National Weather Service. Today they give us an early warning which is "Time Sensitive Information" meaning it is only actionable IF we know and act soon enough.  

Information gathering is essential in a SHTF situation and must be done carefully and objectively.  Do not jump to rash conclusions nor wait too long before taking action.  Realize that most likely, others are gathering information on you as well (like the NSA does on average 25 times daily per American); take steps to avoid disclosing too much, or better yet, provide misinformation. Change your procedures randomly;  The Prepper Handbook on Amazon has a lot of details on security. Seek to verify your information; send scout teams out if necessary to get confirming sources.  Be careful about trusting social media; it may be fast to respond but is often inaccurate.

We gather intelligence by interacting with other people.  As a Prepper group leader, you should train your team to interact and casually question others as they encounter them.  This is often referred to as Human Intelligence or HUMINT by the military. The CIA even has some information to offer on it: https://www.cia.gov/news-information/featured-story-archive/2010-featured-story-archive/intelligence-human-intelligence.html


Police Scanners might be a good intelligence source. Scanning common communication frequencies might disclose intelligence about civilians.  MURS, Citizens Band (CB) Radios and more importantly, Ham radios can be monitored.  All information is potentially important until determined otherwise.

Gathered information may (or may not) be compartmentalized so that no one person knows too much if captured or a spy.  Either way, it must be reviewed, filtered and assembled much like we see in the movies with the mock battlefield or cork board with all the notes pinned in specific areas. Then develop a plan and a back up plan to act upon the information.

Wikipedia has some good information that we will list at the bottom for your convenience.

For more information see:

Wikipedia:

Human intelligence (frequently abbreviated HUMINT) is intelligence gathered by means of interpersonal contact, as opposed to the more technical intelligence gathering disciplines such as signals intelligence (SIGINT), imagery intelligence (IMINT) and measurement and signature intelligence (MASINT).
NATO defines HUMINT as "a category of intelligence derived from information collected and provided by human sources."[1] Typical HUMINT activities consist of interrogations and conversations with persons having access to information.
The manner in which HUMINT operations are conducted is dictated by both official protocol and the nature of the source of the information. Within the context of the U.S. military, most HUMINT activity does not involve clandestine activities. Both counter intelligence and HUMINT do include clandestine HUMINT and clandestine HUMINT operational techniques.
HUMINT can provide several kinds of information. It can provide observations during travel or other events from travelers, refugees, escaped friendly POWs, etc. It can provide data on things about which the subject has specific knowledge, which can be another human subject, or, in the case of defectors and spies, sensitive information to which they had access. Finally, it can provide information on interpersonal relationships and networks of interest.
HUMINT is both a source of positive intelligence, but also of information of strong counterintelligence value. Interviews should balance any known information requirements of both intelligence collection guidance and of counterintelligence requirements.

Sources

Sources may be neutral, friendly, or hostile, and may or may not be witting of their involvement in the collection of information. "Witting" is a term of intelligence art that indicates that one is not only aware of a fact or piece of information, but also aware of its connection to intelligence activities. Examples of HUMINT sources include, but are not limited to, the following:

Basic HUMINT operations

Human source screening is the logical start of collection of HUMINT. This involves selecting people who may be sources of meaningful HUMINT, possibly positively identifying them, and conducting interviews of various types. Properly recording and cross-indexing the results of interviews is essential. No intelligence collection discipline is more likely to find meaning in apparently small bits of information than is HUMINT. Especially when there is reason to have additional interviews with the same individual, the subsequent interviews need careful planning, especially when the interrogator does not speak the language of the person being interviewed.

Intelligence preparation for working in cultures

As with other intelligence collection disciplines, intelligence analysis can play many supporting roles. An obvious one is biographical intelligence, to help identify known hostile undercover personnel, or individuals who will impartially mislead an assortment of national intelligence services for profit.
Equally important is the broader area of cultural intelligence, which draws heavily on the social sciences. In a book review in the CIA professional journal, Lloyd F. Jordan recognizes two forms of study of culture, both of which are relevant to HUMINT.[2] In the review, Jordan describes Patai's book[3] as an excellent example of a second type of cultural analysis. He reviews the first group of scientific analyses of culture and character as beginning with "cultural anthropology as early as the 1920s. During World War II, those methods employed earlier in the academic community in this field of research were brought to bear upon a variety of problems connected with the war effort.
"It was precisely the inaccessibility of the target country and the availability of only fragmentary information about it that made national character research relevant to intelligence analysis during the war. The cultural anthropologists had long been developing models of former and disappearing cultures from fragmentary materials. The anthropologists, joined by the psychiatrists, combined the use of psychoanalytic theory, interaction theory, child development theory, and learning theory with standard anthropological research methods to construct models of the contemporary cultures of wartime enemy countries, Japan and Germany." The classic work of this type is Ruth Benedict's study of Japan, The Chrysanthemum and the Sword.[4]
Mike observes that Benedict's approach was the only one in use until the late 1950s. "National character studies" focused on the statistically most significant personality characteristics of the group (i.e., the modal personality), rather than the most common manifestation of the traits. "...modal personality construct[s] tended to be related to the total culture, or at least, its salient features."
The second class of studies, of which Patai's is an exemplar for Arab culture, had a more narrow focus. "...they concentrated on the relationship of personality traits to subsets of a given society or a given category of roles of that society, rather than on the identification of relationships between personality and the social structure as a whole." A third category, the comparative study, included Francis L. K. Hsu's Americans and Chinese.[5] Indeed, some recent and controversial works, such as Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order can be regarded as an extension of comparative study into the idea of conflicts among the groups compared.[6]

Basic differentiation by subject type

Different types of human subjects will share information voluntarily or involuntarily. The interrogator builds a relationship with the subject, a relationship that can be based on trust, fear, friendship, or any of a range of human emotions. Prisoners have an understandable fear of what may happen, and, contrary to "tough guy" images, it can be important to relax them and, as much as possible, put them at ease.[7] Some organizations teach their members that the other side tortures everyone, and, if that is known, that fear must be addressed; Japanese prisoners in WWII often attempted suicide for that reason[8] but were sometimes dissuaded, as by Guy Gabaldon.
"The question of torture should be disposed of at once. Quite apart from moral and legal considerations, physical torture or extreme mental torture is not an expedient device. Maltreating the subject is from a strictly practical point of view as short-sighted as whipping a horse to his knees before a thirty-mile ride. It is true that almost anyone will eventually talk when subjected to enough physical pressures, but the information obtained in this way is likely to be of little intelligence value and the subject himself rendered unfit for further exploitation. Physical pressure will often yield a confession, true or false, but what an intelligence interrogation seeks is a continuing flow of information."[7]
Especially when the subject is a prisoner, the screener, who need not be the main interrogator, should examine the Enemy Prisoner of War (EPW) captive tag or other basic information giving the circumstances of capture: when, where, how, by whom, and so forth.[9] If the subject is not under any restraint, it is still quite useful for a screener to prepare contact information comparable to the information on the EPW tag.
When the subject is a POW, screeners should pay particular attention to rank insignia, condition of uniforms and equipment, and behavior demonstrated by the source. Screeners should look for things like attempts to talk to the guards, intentionally joining placement in the wrong segregation group, or any signs of nervousness, anxiety, or fear. Any source whose appearance or behavior indicates that he is willing to talk should be noted by the screeners.[9]
Assuming the subject has been under guard, the screener often can get valuable information about the subject's behavior from the guards. They can tell the screener how the source has responded to orders, what requests have been made by the source, what behavior has been demonstrated by the source, and so forth.[9] Along with the basic contact information, such observations can be extremely helpful to the interrogator, who can study the information before the interview. Having background on the subject helps the interrogator retain the initiative in an interview.
Again for prisoners, screeners should examine the documents captured with the source and any documents pertaining to the source.[9] If the subject is voluntary and providing documents, they may even be more valuable. Screeners may need to get help from linguists or document specialists in understanding the material. If the documents have insignia or other graphics, these should be compared with an existing graphics register, and added to it if they are new.
Documents captured with the source (identification card, letters, map sections, and so forth) can provide information that identifies the source, his organization, his mission, and other personal background (family, knowledge, experience, and so forth). This information can be used to verify information from documents captured with the source and further assess his willingness to cooperate. When examining documents, screeners should look for items that will indicate whether the source is cooperative or willing to cooperate based on any specific personal interest.
If the source has information pertaining to new foreign material, contact appropriate TECHINT specialists, and if the source has information of target exploitation interest, contact the appropriate staff members who deal with targeting. These specialists are not necessarily qualified interrogators and may need to meet jointly with the subject and interrogator, or pass questions to the interrogator.

Selecting potential sources

It involves evaluating an individual, or group of individuals, "to determine their potential to answer [intelligence] collection requirements or to identify individuals who match a predetermined source profile. The goal of the process is to identify individuals who may have information of interest, and are willing or can be persuaded to cooperate. Willing individuals will undergo debriefing, and, subject to the relevant laws, regulations and policies of the HUMINT organization, unwilling people may be interrogated.
Screening techniques also can select individuals who may be prospects to collect intelligence or work, in other ways, with the HUMINT organization or its sponsor. Individuals may also be identified who are of interest to counterintelligence or to technical intelligence specialists.[10]
System for Prioritizing Interview Subjects
Cooperation levelCooperation codeKnowledgeability levelKnowledgeability code
Responds to direct questions1Very likely to have pertinent informationA
Responds hesitantly2May have pertinent informationB
Does not respond3Unlikely to have pertinent informationC

Priorities of subjects for interrogation
It may be necessary to screen individuals in a local area, as residents or possibly workers, to determine if they may be security risks.

Identification

Since the identity of individuals is very relevant to HUMINT, it makes extensive use of biometric data (e.g., fingerprints, iris scans, voice prints, facial/physical features) collected on persons of interest.[11]

Types of interviews

Subject interview has many of the same dynamics as a psychotherapeutic relationship. In an extended interrogation, if there is dialogue between interrogator and subject, there will be dynamics closely related to the psychotherapeutic concept of transference and countertransference. In the former, the subject projects emotional experiences of his own onto the interrogator, and in the latter, the interrogator will start thinking of the subject in terms of his own life experiences.
There are other ways to use social science to understand interviews, in the broad sense of cooperative debriefing and hostile interrogation. Speaking of interrogation in the law enforcement context, "There is a vast literature on interrogation ... but hardly anything on it at all in the field of argumentation theory.... Argumentation theorists have taken as their point of interest rational argumentation in which two parties reason together to try to get at the truth of a matter following collaborative rules of procedure. And the interrogation is scarcely a model of how to conduct balanced rational argumentation. Far from that, it seems to represent a coercive kind of dialogue exchange that is associated with intimidation..."[12] but a debriefing is not necessarily coercive
In some cases, an interrogation becomes less coercive, if the subject begins to identify with the conceptual framework of the interrogator. The latter can be a false Stockholm syndrome context, or it can be a case where the subject actually sees that his belief system has fallacies, and he may start to share aspects of the interrogator's mindset.
With WWII Japanese prisoners who believed that the shame of capture permanently separated them from that culture,[13] and who were unable to commit suicide,[8] appeared to see themselves as now part of the interrogator's culture, and became quite cooperative. "...there was one infallible method of convincing a reluctant Japanese prisoner to tell all he knows: to tell him, via interpreters, that they will send his name and picture back to Japan. ... We might note that few Japanese ever attempt to hold anything back. Being taken prisoner is not in their handbooks. No Japanese is ever taken alive. Thus, they are not drilled in the "Name- Rank- Serial No- nothing more" routine. They usually reveal everything easily without any persuasion and seem unhappy when their lack of information does not permit them to answer a specific question. [a captured officer]...doesn't expect to return to Japan ever, has completely excluded his family and his wife from his thinking, and appears pleasantly resigned to going to the States and working there even as a prisoner for the rest of his life."[13] In argumentative theory, interrogation is a form of information-seeking dialogue, but also can include other kinds of dialogue, such as negotiation. In both police and intelligence interviews, there may be bargaining, where the interrogator offers incentives for the subject to reveal information. The revealed information, especially in a HUMINT context, is not necessarily about the interrogation and also may involve persuasion of the subject to speak.[12]
Before going on to study the relationship of the interrogation to information seeking dialogue, some account must be given of other types of dialogue related to interrogation as well. For the interrogation has a way of shifting from pure information-seeking to other types of dialogue. As an example, argumentative theory recognizes 'persuasion', in the sense meant in the persuasion dialogue,[12] with certain strategic interrogations, the interrogator might objectively question some of the practices of the subject's side. This is not done for direct elicitation of information, but to set a new context for further interrogation in which the subject might question some of his own loyalties and assumptions. In the case of the Japanese prisoners of the US, they began to operate in that new context.[13]

Debriefing

Debriefing involves getting cooperating human sources to satisfy intelligence requirements, consistent with the rules, laws, and policies of the HUMINT organization. People being debriefed are usually willing to cooperate, although it is possible to obtain information through casual conversation. Debriefing may be conducted at all echelons and in all operational environments.
Types of people being interviewed include both "tasked" and "non-tasked" individuals. Tasked individuals are, in some way, part of the interviewer's organization.

Categories of interviewees for voluntary debriefing
TaskedNot tasked
Military police and infantry patrols in nominally controlled areasResidents of nominally controlled areas
Special reconnaissance teams (see special reconnaissance)Nongovernmental organization workers in the area of operations
Diplomats of one's own countryFriendly or neutral foreign diplomats
National or higher command level subject matter experts (e.g., intelligence personnel)Persons outside the area but knowledgeable about it (e.g., émigrés)

Tasked personnel giving brief reports of the enemy use the SALUTE technique. More formal or extensive debriefing methods are used for obtaining specialized or complex information.
Other than talking to tasked personnel, there is a tendency for some HUMINT collectors to regard debriefing as a waste of time. The approach to a voluntary source needs to be quite different from that to a cooperative prisoner, especially if the interrogator has reason to believe the source is knowledgeable. While a subject may be a volunteer, a refugee or displaced person is likely to have some of the fears and uncertainty undergone by POWs. Active listening and sympathy can pay great benefits, especially in the areas of love of family, and anger at those who made them homeless.
The HUMINT collector should allow specialized or senior sources more latitude to interpose their opinions and evaluations. Prior to the meeting, collectors need to examine all available information, to have an idea of the subject's personality and motivations when beginning to talk to them. It also may require unobtrusive observation of the subject to establish such things as patterns of activity and likes and dislikes. The closer the interview environment can be to the customary surroundings of the subject, the more comfortable and cooperative the source may be.
One example of source that should have latitude are trained foreign internal defense (FID) or unconventional warfare (UW) personnel that work with local residents, or military forces, on a routine basis. Such people may very well themselves have HUMINT and/or CI training; US Special Forces groups have two-man HUMINT/CI teams that can augment operational detachments.
Historically, after the WWII experience of resistance leaders such as the Jedburgh teams, occurred to various commanders that soldiers trained to operate as guerillas would have a strong sense of how to fight guerillas. Even before specialist FID/UW units were constituted, organizations such as Military Assistance Advisory Groups, as in Greece just after WWII, also had extensive local knowledge. Before the partition of French Indochina in 1954, French Groupement de Commandos Mixtes Aéroportés (GCMA) took on this role, drawing on French experience with the Jedburgh teams.[14] GCMA, operating in Tonkin and Laos under French intelligence, was complemented by Commandos Nord Viêt-Nam in the North. In these missions, the SOF teams lived and fought with the locals.
United States Army Special Forces, U.S. Marine Corps Combined Action Program (CAP) program personnel (originally in Vietnam,[15] but now in Iraq[16]) and various training detachments are apt to have valuable and structured information.
In all cases, the more knowledgeable the interrogator is to the volunteer, the better the result is likely to be. A collector does not need to keep the same level as control as in a hostile interrogation. Sometimes, admitting ignorance of a custom, and respectfully asking for explanation, will trigger a flow of information.
While it takes sophistication, the best general approach to willing subjects is a planned elicitation of information, always with a specific goal in mind. The key to elicitation is the establishment of a rapport between the elicitor and the source, normally based on shared interests. In the initial stages of an elicitation, the collector confines his conversations to innocuous subjects such as sports and social commentary. Dependent on the value of the source, the collection environment, and the security consciousness of the subject, the HUMINT specialist will then shift to a more focused topic.
Once in that mode, elicit the information by continuing to ask for clarification, with questions of the form "I agree, however, what did you mean by....?") or expressing a hypothetical situation. The focused discussion can involve mild flattery and interest in the conversation, or, in a much more delicate approach, selectively challenging statements or introducing new information to show knowledge and stimulate more responses.[10]

Interrogation

As opposed to debriefing, the subject of interrogation is not necessarily cooperating with the obtaining of information by the organization. The subject is normally in custody, although the legal circumstances may be such that an uncooperative subject may be able to leave.
Examples of subjects being interrogated include POWs, individuals detained by patrol as not being from the area, and a thief arrested by the civilian police.
Interrogation is a skilled technique, which often involves building rapport with the subject. In an intelligence context, interrogators should be trained specialists, although they may work with linguists and subject matter experts.[17]
Regardless of whether the interview is voluntary or involuntary, the interrogator needs to keep the initiative. To keep the initiative, the interrogator may not need to be harsh. Indeed, the many successful interrogators are formally polite within the subject's cultural traditions.[9] If, in societies with a strong host-guest tradition, the interrogator takes the role of host, that can allow polite domination of the conversation.
The interrogation process itself is a HUMINT collection, not analysis, technique. It may well be that the interrogator, after the interview, does analysis, cross-checking statements made against name indices and "wiring diagrams" of social networks.[18] The interrogator checks his notes against the finished report to ensure that the report contains and identifies the information as heard, seen, or assumed by the source[9]

Planning the initial interview

While the actual interview technique will vary with the attitude of the subject and the needs of the interviewer's service, the interrogator should develop a basic plan for the first interview. This might be put into a paper folder along with documents (or copies) associated with the subject, or, if available, it can go into a HUMINT database so other interrogators, analysts, cultural and language specialists, can review it. Reviews can help plan the current interview, or give ideas to other interrogators for other interviews.
The basic elements to collect are:
  • Any urgent HUMINT collection requirements
  • Serial number of EPW/detainee to be questioned.
  • Location and time for the questioning.
  • Primary and alternate approaches.
  • Questioning plan including topics to be covered and the planned sequence of these topics.
  • Prepared questions for unfamiliar or highly technical topics.
  • Method of recording and reporting information obtained
  • Linguist support, if needed
  • Additional general or technical interrogators needed
"The preliminary interview is not intended to obtain intelligence, but only to enable the interrogators to make a firm assessment of the character and type of subject with whom they will have to deal."[7]
How much psychological pressure to use, how many symbols of dominance are appropriate to use, require great judgment. Some classic interviewing techniques, without threatening the subject, make him uncomfortable, as, for example, having "interrogators – preferably two of them – seated behind a table at the far end of a long room, so that the subject after entering will have some distance to walk before taking his chair in front of them. This device will enable them to observe his poise and manner, and may often quite unsettle the subject. In this pressure-oriented technique, the interrogators should sit with their backs to the main source of light in order to obscure their faces, veil their expressions, and place a strain on the prisoner. The subject can be placed under further strain by providing him an uncomfortable chair, say one with a polished seat and shortened front legs so that he tends to slide off it, or one with wobbly legs.[7]
"On the other hand, an opposite technique has sometimes been successful: the prisoner is made so comfortable, after a hearty lunch with beer, that he drops his guard in drowsiness.[7] When conducting military source operations, the location of the questioning will have psychological effects on the source. The questioning location should be chosen and set up to correspond to the effect that the HUMINT collector wants to project and his planned approach techniques. For example, meeting in a social type situation such as a restaurant may place the source at ease. Meeting in an apartment projects informality while meeting in an office projects more formality. Meeting at the source's home normally places him at a psychological advantage, while meeting in the HUMINT collector's work area gives the collector a psychological edge. The HUMINT collector should consider the status and level of the source, security, the workspace available, furnishings, the amount of lighting provided, and the ability to heat or cool the room as needed.[10]

Characteristics of the interrogator(s)

Interrogation is an interaction, and, even before considering the different attitudes the subject may have, the interrogator needs to know his own style, strengths and weaknesses. He needs to judge if he needs cultural advice, how to handle language issues, and if he needs specialist help.
The HUMINT collector must also consider the physical conditions of the source and himself. After extended operations, there may be a limit on how long either the HUMINT collector or source can concentrate on a given subject.

Support needs

If the interrogator thinks that offering incentives will help, he must decide what they are and how they are obtained. If incentives were promised in earlier interviews, the collector must know if they were delivered. If they were not, the interrogator needs to plan how the failure to deliver may interfere with any trust built, and how to correct the problem.
The HUMINT collector must decide if he will need additional support including analytical, technical, or interpreter support. On rare occasions, it may be desirable for the HUMINT collector to seek polygraph support or support from a Behavioral Science Consultant (BSC). BSCs are authorized to make psychological assessments of the character, personality, social interactions, and other behavioral characteristics of interrogation subjects and advise HUMINT collectors of their assessments, as needed.

Attitudes of the subject

The basic attitude of the subject will help define the approach to the interview. There are four primary factors that must be considered when selecting tentative approaches:
  • The source's mental and physical state. Is the source injured, angry, crying, arrogant, cocky, or frightened?
  • The source's background. What is the source's age and level of military or civilian experience? Consider cultural, ethnic, and religious factors.
  • The objective of the HUMINT collection. How valuable is the source's potential information? Is it beneficial to spend more effort convincing this source to talk?
  • The HUMINT collector himself. What abilities does he have that can be brought into play? What weaknesses does he have that may interfere with the HUMINT collection? Are there social or ethnic barriers to communication? Can his personality adapt to the personality of the source?
Cooperative and friendly
A cooperative and friendly source offers little resistance to the interrogation and normally speaks freely on almost any topic introduced, other than that which will tend to incriminate or degrade him personally.
To obtain the maximum amount of information from cooperative and friendly sources, the interrogator takes care to establish and to preserve a friendly and cooperative atmosphere by not inquiring into those private affairs which are beyond the scope of the interrogation. At the same time, he must avoid becoming overly friendly and losing control of the interrogation.[9] The interrogator, however, may need to get expert advice on the customs of the subject's culture. While Americans might not spend time inquiring about the journey to the place of the interrogation, the health of one another's family, etc., not to do so is extremely impolite in some cultures. Not following cultural norms may transform a cooperative subject into a silent one.
For example, Arab cultural norms, reasonable to follow in a friendly conversation with a subject of that culture, do, often in ceremonial terms, speak of family. Handshakes are traditional at the start and end of the meeting.[19]
Neutral and nonpartisan
A neutral and nonpartisan source is cooperative to a limited degree. He normally takes the position of answering questions asked directly, but seldom volunteers information. In some cases, he may be afraid to answer for fear of reprisals by the enemy. This often is the case in low-intensity conflict (LIC) where the people may be fearful of insurgent reprisals. With the neutral and nonpartisan source, the interrogator may have to ask many specific questions to obtain the information required.
Hostile and antagonistic
A hostile and antagonistic source is most difficult to interrogate. In many cases, he refuses to talk at all and offers a real challenge to the interrogator. An interrogator must have self-control, patience, and tact when dealing with him.
Inexperienced interrogators may do well to limit their interview, and pass the subject to a more senior interrogator. When handing off the subject, the next interrogator will find it very useful to have any clues why the subject is being hostile.
"The recalcitrant subject of an intelligence interrogation must be "broken" but broken for use like a riding horse, not smashed in the search for a single golden egg."
No two interrogations are the same. Each interrogation is thus carefully tailored to the measure of the individual subject. The standard lines of procedure, however, may be divided into four parts:
  1. arrest and detention
  2. preliminary interview and questioning
  3. intensive examination
  4. exploitation.
The first three steps, which emphatically do not involve torture, can be combined and called the "softening-up" process. If the subject is using a cover story, it may be broken by softening-up.
"Showing some subjects up as liars is the very worst thing to do, because their determination not to lose face will only make them stick harder to the lie. For these it is necessary to provide loopholes by asking questions which let them correct their stories without any direct admission to lying".[7]
The questioning itself can be carried out in a friendly, persuasive manner, from a hard, merciless and threatening posture, or with an impersonal and neutral approach. In order to achieve the disconcerting effect of alternation among these attitudes it may be necessary to use as many as four different interrogators playing the following roles, although one interrogator may sometimes double in two of them:
  1. the cold, unfeeling individual whose questions are shot out as from a machine-gun, whose voice is hard and monotonous, who neither threatens nor shows compassion.
  2. the bullying interrogator who uses threats, insults and sarcasm to break through the subject's guard by making him lose his temper or by exhausting him.
  3. the ostensibly naive and credulous questioner, who seems to be taken in by the prisoner's story, makes him feel smarter than the interrogator, gives him his rope and builds up false confidence which may betray him.
  4. the kind and friendly man, understanding and persuasive, whose sympathetic approach is of decisive importance at the climactic phase of the interrogation. He is most effectively used after a siege with the first and second types, or after a troubled sleep following such a siege.

Planning additional interviews

The main factor for human intelligence is getam. This can be part of softening-up, or part of the exploitation phase. "When the cover story and the will to resist have been broken, when the subject is ready to answer a series of carefully prepared questions aimed at an intelligence target, the exploitation can begin, often in a veiled spirit of cooperation and mutual assistance. At this stage the interrogation may for example be moved to an office assigned the subject, where he might even be left alone for a few minutes to show that he is being trusted and that there is something constructive for him to do. This feeling of trust and responsibility can be very important to a broken subject, because he may now have suicidal inclinations; he must be given something to occupy his mind and keep him from too much introspection.
Which course is better will depend on the subject's character, the way he was broken, and his present attitude toward those who have been handling him. Sometimes only a fresh interrogator can get real cooperation from him. Sometimes, on the other hand, he is so ashamed of having broken that he is unwilling to expose himself further and wants to talk only to his original questioner. And sometimes he has built up a trustful and confiding relationship with his interrogator which should not be destroyed by the introduction of another personality.

Principles of questioning

The HUMINT collector adopts an appropriate persona based on his appraisal of the source but remains alert for verbal and non-verbal clues that indicate the need for a change in the approach techniques. The amount of time spent on this phase will depend mostly on the probable quantity and value of information the source possesses, the availability of other sources with knowledge on the same topics, and available time. At the initial contact, a businesslike relationship should be maintained. As the source assumes a cooperative attitude, a more relaxed atmosphere may be advantageous. The HUMINT collector must carefully determine which of the various approach techniques to employ.
If a source cooperates, his or her motivations vary. They can range from altruism to personal gain; they may be based on logic or emotion. From a psychological standpoint, the HUMINT collector must be cognizant of the following behaviors.[10] People tend to—
  • Want to talk when they are under stress and respond to kindness and understanding during trying circumstances. For example, enemy soldiers who have just been captured have experienced a significant stress-producing episode. The natural inclination is for people to want to talk about this sort of experience. If the EPW has been properly segregated and silenced, the HUMINT collector will be the first person the EPW has a chance to talk to. This is a powerful tool for the collector to use to get the subject talking. The desire to talk may also be manifested in refugees, DPs, and even local civilians when confronted by an unsettled situation.
  • Show deference when confronted by superior authority. This is culturally dependent but in most areas of the world people are used to responding to questions from a variety of government and quasi-government officials.
  • Operate within a framework of personal and culturally derived values. People tend to respond positively to individuals who display the same value system and negatively when their core values are challenged.
  • Respond to physical and, more importantly, emotional self-interest. This may be as simple as responding to material rewards such as extresponding to support in rationalizing guilt.
  • Fail to apply or remember lessons they may have been taught regarding security if confronted with a disorganized or strange situation.
  • Be more willing to discuss a topic about which the HUMINT collector demonstrates identical or related experience or knowledge.
  • Appreciate flattery and exoneration from guilt.
  • Attach less importance to a topic if it is treated routinely by the HUMINT collector.
  • Resent having someone or something they respect belittled, especially by someone they dislike.

Building rapport

"Establish and maintain a rapport between the HUMINT collector and the source. Rapport is a condition established by the HUMINT collector that is characterized by source confidence in the HUMINT collector and a willingness to cooperate with him. This does not necessarily equate to a friendly atmosphere. It means that a relationship is established and maintained that facilitates the collection of information by the HUMINT collector. The HUMINT collector may establish a relationship as superior, equal, or even inferior to the source. The relationship may be based on friendship, mutual gain, or even fear.
If he does introduce himself, normally he will adopt a duty position and rank supportive of the approach strategy selected during the planning and preparation phase. The HUMINT collector must select a rank and duty position that is believable based on the HUMINT collector's age, appearance, and experience. A HUMINT collector may, according to international law, use ruses of war to build rapport with interrogation sources, and this may include posing or "passing himself off" as someone other than a military interrogator. However, the collector must not pose as—
  • A doctor, medic, or any other type of medical personnel.
  • Any member of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) or its affiliates. Such a ruse is a violation of treaty obligations.
  • A chaplain or clergyman.
  • A journalist.
  • A member of the civilian government, such as a Member of Parliament.[10]
"The attitude of the interrogators at the preliminary interview should usually be correct, studiously polite, and in some cases even sympathetic. It is imperative that they keep their tempers both now and throughout the interrogation. The prisoner may be given the true reason for his arrest or a false one, or he may be left in doubt, according to the circumstances of the case. The interrogators must try to determine whether his usually vigorous protestations of innocence are genuine or an act, but they should not at this stage give any indication of whether they believe or disbelieve him. A clever prisoner will try to find out how much the interrogators know; they should at all costs remain poker-faced and non-committal.[7]
"At this interview the interrogators should do as little as possible of the talking, however many questions they are anxious to have answered. The prisoner should be asked to tell his story in his own words, describe the circumstances of his arrest, give the history of some period of his life, or explain the details of his occupation. The object is to get him to talk without prompting in as much continuous narrative as possible; the more he talks the better the interrogators can assess his personality.

Use of recorders

"The interview must of course be recorded, either [as audio] or in stenographic notes." An audio recording is particularly useful if the interview requires an interpreter. If the interpreter is not a regular member of the interrogator's forces, a recording, which can be reviewed by a staff linguist, can be an important part of quality control.
"The interrogators must on no account try to do this job themselves; it would distract them from the critical task of framing questions and steering the course of interrogation according to the implications of the subject's replies. Whether the stenographer or recorder should be concealed or visible depends on the subject's sophistication and the state of his alert. If the recording process is not evident some subjects may become careless of what they say when they see that the interrogators are not taking notes, whereas a visible recording would alert them to be more cautious. For others, consciousness of a recording going on in full view may be unnerving, and they may betray the weak links in their stories by showing signs of distress at these points.
"At a later stage of the interrogation it may be of value to play back to the subject some part of this recording. The sound of his own voice repeating his earlier statements, particularly any with intonations of anger or distress, may make a psychological breach in his defenses."

Working with interpreters

"Without doubt an interrogator using the subject's language is in a much better position than one who has to work through an interpreter. But the interrogation skill is infinitely more important than the language skill, and a good linguist should not be substituted for a good interrogator. In the absence of an interrogator who speaks the language, an interpreter should be used, preferably one with some training in interrogation techniques. It is very important that the interpreter not only report accurately what both parties say but also reflect as faithfully as he can their inflection, tone, manner, and emphasis. He should try to become part of the furniture in the room rather than a third personality, and the interrogator should act as though he were not there."[7]
Interpreters are frequently a necessary aid to HUMINT collection. There are certain advantages to using an interpreter. The most obvious is that without an interpreter, a HUMINT collector without the proper language or necessary proficiency in that language is severely limited. Furthermore, if properly trained, briefed, and assessed, the interpreter can be a valuable assistant to the HUMINT collector.
Interpreters may have more knowledge of the local culture as well as the language, but the HUMINT manager must be cautious that the interpreter is not, for example, a member of a subculture, religion, etc., of the area, that would be offensive to the subject.
Going through an interpreter will slow the process, and also increase the chance of miscommunication. HUMINT collectors also need to be sure that local or third-country nationals are aware of security, and indeed will be loyal to the interpreter's side.
The collector should be aware of potential problems in interpretation. Some warning signs include:
  • Long-to-short. If the interpreter delivers a long statement of yours as a short statement in the subject language, there are several possibilities. The interpreter may be trying to speed the interview, and the collector has to insist on accurate translation. The question may relate to a sensitive subject, perhaps even inducing fear in the interpreter.
  • Short-to-long. If a brief question of the collector turns into a lengthy statement, it must be resolved that the interpreter does not have his own agenda. It is possible that the interpreter is using honorifics, indirect approach, or other culturally appropriate phrasing. There are times, however, when a translation, to control the relationship, needs to be translated exactly and without indirect language.
  • Body-language shift. If the interpreter seems to change his body language or tone, the collector needs to learn the reason. This may be a justification to suspend the questioning until the interrogator can speak privately with the interpreter and find out if there is a problem. Sometimes, the change may be due to nothing more than fatigue or physical discomfort, but the interrogator must be sure that the native-language conversation has not gotten into dislike, threats, or personal connection that would bias the translation.

Recruited/trusted sources

Special Reconnaissance Patrolling

Special reconnaissance is done by soldiers, normally uniformed, who observe enemy activity deep beyond the front line of one's own side. See special reconnaissance for details. Since these are highly trained specialists, they will usually have been communicating clandestinely to the HUMINT organization, and will be systematically prepared for debriefing. The debriefing may be done by HUMINT officers of their own organization, who are most familiar with their information-gathering techniques. Some of those techniques may be extremely sensitive and held on a need-to-know basis within the special reconnaissance organization. They operate significantly farther than the furthest forward friendly scouting and surveillance units; they may be tens to hundreds of kilometers deeper. They may enter the area of operations in many ways.
Their mission is not to engage in direct combat. It may be to observe and report, or it may include directing air or artillery attacks on enemy positions. If the latter is the case, the patrol still tries to stay covert; the idea is that the enemy obviously knows they are being attacked, but not who is directing fire.

Espionage

Espionage is the collection of information by people either in a position of trust for the enemy, or with access to people with such access. The process of recruiting such individuals and supporting their operations is the HUMINT discipline of agent handling.
It may be possible for an agent handler to meet directly with the agent and debrief him. More commonly, agents send messages to the organization for which they work, by radio, Internet, or by leaving the messages in a hard-to-find place. The latter technique, called a dead drop, will have either a courier or the agent handler retrieve them in a clandestine manner. These are examples of espionage tradecraft.

Analyzing relationships among HUMINT subjects

After interviews, be they debriefings or interrogations, there is likely to be data about other people with whom the subject has had contact or knows about. These data are focused on human relationship networks, not, for example, on military information that the subject knows.
Once information is obtained, it is put into an organized form. Very frequently, information obtained at one interview may help structure the next interview with the same person, or with another subject.

Identifying other people of interest

During interviews, a subject is apt to mention things about other people, or be prompted in a seemingly conversational way.

Operational network "wiring diagram"

Much modern interest in tracking networks of people are relevant to guerilla operations and terrorist networks, two loose categories that do not completely overlap. When examining the overall structure of terrorist groups, there are two general categories of organization: networked and hierarchical. A terrorist group may employ either type or a combination of the two models. Newer groups tend towards organizing or adapting to the possibilities inherent in the network model. Ideology can have an effect on internal organization, with strict Leninist or Maoist groups tending towards centralized control and hierarchical structure.[20] Whether the organizational model is hierarchical or not, the operational personnel almost invariably use the cell system for security.
One relevant study looks at modeling terrorist networks in a manner similar to other systems that "exhibit regularity but not periodicity (i.e., locally random, but globally defined).[21]
Their model focuses at the "mid-range", "not at the level of state leadership, and not at the level of mapping and predicting the behavior of each individual terrorist, but rather at an intermediate or organizational level"... Much as vulnerability analysis of connectionless packet networks such as the Internet[22] concentrates on the nodes whose loss would most interfere with connectivity, the study here looks for the "pattern of connections surrounding a node that allows for wide network reach with minimal direct ties. "Structural holes" at the intersection of flows across knowledge communities position unique and superior nodes. It is the individuals spanning these "internal holes of opportunity" that impact the network's functioning and performance. The implicit corollary of this is that if a small number of these critical nodes can be identified and "clipped" from the network, then command signals will not be able to propagate through the system."
In the 9/11 case, the pilots were such key nodes, once the US operational groups were in-country and operating.[23] Taking the observation of centrality a step farther, COMINT can complement HUMINT in finding the nodes of a geographically dispersed human network.

Obstacles to development of HUMINT capabilities

The following observations are drawn from the article by Lawrence Wright who interviews Director of National Intelligence John Michael McConnell.

Inability to recruit people who are different due to a misperception of security risk factors

To develop HUMINT agents it is necessary to recruit HUMINT controlling officers with native foreign-language skills. However, the U.S. Security clearance process has several problems:
  • It is biased against first-generation immigrants with active relationships to their former country.
  • It is biased against non-heterosexuals. (For overview see Wikipedia article Sexual orientation and military service.) The U.S. Army, for example, has dismissed hundreds of gays with important language skills, during a time of critical national need for Arabic linguists.[25] This while, according to Wright's article, the FBI has gone from 8 Arabic-speaking agents to 9 in the seven years since the 9/11 attacks.
  • It takes up to two years to complete, longer than many immigrants are willing to put their careers on hold while waiting for a clearance.
McConnell's solution to this is to
  • Shorten the clearance process to a month or less.
  • Subject officers to "'life-cycle monitoring' – that is, constant surveillance".
There have been other cases in the past where it has been necessary to balance security clearance policy against national needs, for example:
DNI McConnell notes also in Wright's article that the predominant risk factor which turns officers into traitors is not ethnicity, sexuality or politics, it is money:
"'Look back at all the spies we've had in our history', he said. 'About a hundred and thirty. How many did it for money? A hundred and twenty-eight.'"
For example,
  • Philip Agee received $1 million from Cuban intelligence service to publicize the names of CIA agents as part of an active measures campaign by the KGB.
  • Israel Defense Forces psychiatrist David Shamir "attempted to make contact with the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Hamas officials, and the Russian intelligence service, the FSB, with the intention of selling them classified information which he came upon during his military service". While his claimed motivation was political, the bottom line was still money (emphasis added in quote):
"Shamir said his prime motivation for his actions was what he viewed as the continued breakdown of the state's social fabric. 'The idea was to save my life and that of my son and the last years of my parents' lives, and to have things happen so that we can really be saved,' he said. 'The thinking was that I would receive money which I would use to attain asylum for me, my son, and my family, and to enable them to live as reasonably as possible, not in Iran, not in Lebanon, but rather in a European country.' "

Inability to trust people who are different due to failure to innovate in technical OPSEC

Wright claims that "Much of the intelligence community is technophobic and is also hamstrung by security concerns. Only recently have BlackBerrys made their way into some agencies, and many offices don't even have Internet connections." Hence it is difficult to institute technical controls that would allow the organization to effectively compartimentalize the knowledge of officers in the organization so that even moderately untrusted people could serve. I.e., in many cases of "moles" or internal spies, low-level spies have had access to huge volumes of secret data. This would not be possible if adequate technical measures were instituted to effectively compartmentalize information access on a more finely categorized and motivated need-to-know basis. In other words, there is a so far lost opportunity to use technical measures to improve operational security while at the same time allowing a broader range of people to serve. Another aspect of this would be to automatically filter information "down to" and tailored to a specific subject-matter need-to-know characterization of the requesting individual.

Inability to share information across the community due to operational technophobia

A third obstacle to HUMINT and intelligence analysis in general is effective information sharing across the intelligence community. Wright's article notes that "the community still relies on more than thirty online networks and eighty databases, most of which are largely inaccessible to one another". Lack of information sharing has been partly addressed technically by adding new information-sharing tools
  • Intellipedia, using MediaWiki software with additional security features.
  • A-Space, "based on sites such as MySpace and Facebook – in which analysts post their current projects as a way of creating social networks."
  • The Library of National Intelligence, which "is an online digest of official reports that will soon provide analysts who use it with tips, much the way Amazon and iTunes offer recommendations to their customers."
However, Wright notes that "These innovations have not yet made their way to the analysts and agents in the field", and "the intelligence community has only warily appropriated models whose usefulness is blindingly obvious".





Sunday, March 20, 2016

Global Climate Facts

We are burning about 96 million barrels of fossil fuel a day, polluting and overpopulating our planet. But is Global Warming caused by human activity or simply a natural cycle?

Let's look at the available science about our climate in a graphic from a Smithsonian web page.  Note that time moves from right to left. The far right represents 10 million years ago; the far left represents today.  Over millions of years, the earth has gotten cooler and cooler, but also had wider and wider swings in temperature.

http://humanorigins.si.edu/sites/default/files/Oxygen%20isotope%20curve%20for%20the%20past%2010%20ma_l.jpg




If we focus on the last million years graph from NASA, we see a cycle of rapid global warming followed by a cooler period for a temperature range of about 12 degrees C over a relatively short time period. All without influence by humans. The highest value was about 125,000 years ago and we are currently at (barely) the fourth highest value temperature in the last million years.This distance/time between the recent highs and lows is fairly constant and would suggest that we are more likely to be facing an ice age than global warming. However, it is probably a few thousand years away.

An even more recent period (below), again from NASA we see a temperature change of about 0.9 or just under one degree centigrade over 130+ years, a sample size of about 0.0016% relative to the top graph.  Clearly the temperature is going up, but nowhere near the 12-degree temperature swings we see above.

 Does man damage our environment? Absolutely, you only have to look at the litter and pollution, but looking at the whole picture, global warming seems inconclusive.  The sample size is too small to conclude with any degree of certainty, and it could simply be normal cycles of the earths temperature. Further, human development and evolution advanced the most during wide temperature swings according to this Smithsonian link: http://humanorigins.si.edu/research/climate-and-human-evolution/climate-effects-human-evolution

Global Warming or natural cycle? Will earth experience a warming spike followed by an ice age and the answer is yes, but not within our life time, probably not within the next 10,000 years. 

But if it did, we should be looking at an underground shelter, growing mushrooms to eat or migrating to the equator where crops might still be grown.  For more information on surviving an Ice Age, see:  Surviving an Asteroid Impact.

For additional Prepper information see:

Blog Table of Contents




Monday, March 14, 2016

Prepper Incremental Strategy

The following is an excerpt from the Prepper Handbook available on Amazon for $4.99.

Now let’s talk about common sense prepping. Not going overboard or becoming obsessed, but rather build your preparations slowly over time. Few of us have unlimited funds to go out and buy everything we need at once. Therefore, we must organize, prioritize, and develop our preparations over time. I call this our Incremental Strategy Plan. As you read this book, you should develop your own plan. The following table is an excellent example to follow and can be tailored to meet your specific needs.

This table gives you several columns that represent the approximate times that you might be able to survive with no outside support. The columns and rows are in order of priority. Starting on the left is the minimum level of preparations that you should have. Start at the top row of the first column and work down. Once you achieve the first column level titled “0 – 25%, 7 days” then it is time to move across and start securing the second column of preparations titled “26 – 50%, 30 days.”  Continue this process until you are comfortable with your level of preparation.

You will notice the first item shown in the first column and first row is Ammo and at least one firearm. It doesn’t matter what preparations you have in place; you won’t be able to keep them unless you are armed.
Prepper Incremental Strategy Table
        Column 1st priority         2nd priority      3rd priority      4th priority
Prep Level &Period of time:
0–25%7 days26– 50%30 days51 – 75%6 Months76 – 98%1 Year +
Comment on potential cause, symptoms and consequencesFlu, hurricane, tornado, earthquake, chemical leak, wildfire. Power / water out a few days. Minor looting. Less than 1% population lossSerious pandemic, massive chemical or radiation leak, wildfire, rioting & gang looting.Power / water out for weeks.Single digit population loss.Social upheaval, terrorist or limited nuke attack, large organized gang looting. Indefinite power outage. Double digit population loss.EMP, Economic Meltdown, hyperinflation,Organized Militia, possibly foreign “help imposing order”, confiscating weapons & supplies for the common good. 50+% population losses.
Security(1st priority row)200 rounds of Ammo & at least one personal protection firearm. Solar Powered Lawn Lights that use AA Batteries.Crank radio & flash lights.Whistles for emergency communication.Increase to 500 rounds of Ammo per firearm & at least 1 pistol & rifle.Add: Solar Powered Motion detection alarms (Home Brite) and Walkie Talkie Radios, CB, ham radios, trip wire, guard dog.Increase to 1,000 rounds of Ammo per firearm.Add: at least 1 pistol & rifle per adult; Gen 3 Night Vision & a bullet proof vest for every 2 – 3 adults.Increase to 5,000 rounds of Ammo per firearm.Add Bow & 24 Arrows for each adult; Black Powder Flintlock rifle & bullet mold.Also one Ruger or Marlin Stainless Steel .22 Rifle per Teenager.Gen 3 Night Vision (2).
Watch(2nd priority row)Radio, TV, daily scouting in pairs / visit neighbors. Sleep with 1 eye open.Night watchman24 – 7 Armed Security WatchCommunity Organized Constitutional law enforcement.
Air(3rd priority row)Gas Mask per person. Recall smoke inhalation kills, not the house fire.Add: Gas Mask for each vehicle & extra set of filters per family member.Add: 2 NBC (Nuclear, Biological & Chemical) Suits.Add: another extra set of filters and 2 NBC Suits.
Shelter(4th priority)Stocked primary residence & backup tent. Outdoor barking dogs.Add: Get out of Dodge (GOOD) pack; Neighborhood organized.Add: remote retreat with underground shelter & sufficient fuel to get there.Add: Security posts for community watch with good cover & communications. Restore utility services.
Water(5th priority)1 gallon of unscented bleach per family and 7 gallons of stored water per person.Increase to 30 gallons of stored water per person.Add: Water filtration.Increase to two (2) gallons of bleach.Add:  renewal water source – creek, pond.Increase to four (4) gallons of unscented bleach.Add: water distillation.
Food(6th priority)Kitchen pantry & cabinets well stocked with your normal foods, especially dried goods and those with long shelf lives. Have a small “practice” garden and a few hand tools.Add:  Freezer stocked with ¼ to ½ beef & commonly used frozen foods. Electric Generator and gas to run freezer. Canning book(s), water pump, matches & fire starters. Larger garden.Add: 6 month supply of dried food for each person. 1,000 canning Jars & extra lids Garden Seeds. Chickens & Incubator for eggs & meat. RabbitsIncrease vitamins & food supply to 12 months.Add:   Heirloom seeds & hand / garden tools for extended food production.Cows, goats, sheep, horses.
Health & Safety(7th priority)Advanced First aid Kit.Keep plenty of vitamins & medicines. Fire protectionAdd: Extra First Aid supplies like alcohol, hydrogen peroxide, triple Antibiotic cream, acetaminophen, ibuprofen & Vitamins.Add Books – When there is no Doctor & When there is no Dentist. Expand fire protection.Group Doctor or nurse. Trauma & surgery first aid kit. Books on nutrition.
Barter / Share(8th priority)Cash, Water & dried foods. Extra First Aid kit(s). Extra Batteries & LED head lights  Basic first aide kitsAdd: Extra first aid supplies Basic Skills, Survival & Medical Books, Bibles. Rechargeable batteries.Add:  Extra ammo in common calibers.Extra Stainless Steel 22 Rifles to arm trusted neighbors.Add: US Silver &/or Gold coins. Organized weekly community barter & swap events.Extra Hand & Gardening Tools.
Extras(9th priority)Quality AC inverter (120 volt Plug) for your car(s). Police Scanner, can openers. Pet food.Several 5 Gal Cans of Gas & maps. Propane (long shelf life), Kerosene & Lamps. Para Cord (Mil Std 8 ply).Solar power system,  hand water pump, rain water collection, grain grinder,Trauma and Surgical Kit, home school books, encyclopedia, fish nets, and Alternate resort off site stores cached for retreat plan.

This table is an example to present the incremental strategy concept. The actual priorities may vary depending on your situation. If you live near a nuclear power plant, NBC (Nuclear, Biological & Chemical) Suits are a higher priority. If you live near a chemical plant, refinery, or areas with frequent wild fires, then Gas Masks & extra filters become a higher priority. If you live in a crowded area with no place to go (Bug Out), then you need more security and motion detection, community organization and weapons to share with neighbors for strength in numbers.  See the post Urban Survival Plan


For additional information see the following links:

Saturday, March 5, 2016

Emergency Water

Water is perhaps the most over looked thing to store as a Prepper, because you can only live three (3) days with out it according to The Rule of 3. After water, most people don't have The right amount of Ammo.

There are a large number of water sources like your ice maker, hot water heater, toilet tank, water pipes, municipal tanks, pools, hot tubs, wells, creeks, lakes, fish ponds and ditches. The first two are generally safe to drink but the further down the list you go, the more treatment is needed.

The best system is to have a home water dispenser that uses the five gallon bottles in the picture above. Then have a couple of those racks available at Amazon.com full of five gallon bottles and rotate them. By using them in your normal daily life, you can stock more with out fear of them going bad.

How much water should I have?  The answer depends on how long you want to be prepared for.  You need a minimum of one gallon per day per person.  So for a family of three (3) to be prepared for a week, you need 21 gallons of water (3 people X 7 days) which equates to about four (4) of the above bottles of water.  You can easily have this covered with two of the racks shown stocked with water and each week exchange the empties for full bottles.  Some companies even offer a home delivery service.

Incremental Prepper Water Plan

     Step 1: Start with a water dispenser and a five gallon bottle of water.
     Step 2: Get a backup 5 gallon bottle of water (or 2).
     Step 3: Get a rack for your back up water bottles and keep it full.
     Step 4: Get another rack and keep it full.
     Step 5: Repeat step 4 until you have your target water supply.

It is best to stock what you are likely to use on a regular basis so that it is rotated.  As a result, a popular alternative plan would be to stock cases of bottled water. A typical case of 24 bottles (500 ml each) equates to about 3 gallons of water.  This is a three day supply for one person or a one day supply for three people. For a family of four to survive 7 days, you would need 28 gallons of water, or about 10 cases bottled water (24 - 500 ml bottles per case).

You can also save your household bottles and store tap water in them, but I might only use it as non potable water.  Good storage places for one gallon bottles include the closet, behind the sofa next to the wall, in the attic or under the bed. Some keep them in cabinets over the stove or in the attic over a heater, which could serve as a fire suppressor.

Five gallon bottles are the lowest cost water storage option, but you should have other alternatives. Know where you closest community pool, creek or lake is located and have some means to treat the water.

There are two types of treatment.
  1. The most common treatment is to remove or kill the micro organisms making water biologically safe for drinking. Filtration, water treatment tablets, chlorine bleach, UV Steri-Pen, boiling or distillation can achieve this.
  2. The second type of treatment is to remove the impurities. Distillation will remove salt and minerals and filtration will remove solid contaminates, but chemicals are more difficult to remove. Filtering with activated charcoal works with some chemicals.  Distillation removes chemicals with boiling point significantly above that of water, but does not remove some aromatic solvents and pesticides.  Water with a chemical smell or a visible film on the surface is risky to consume.  After allowing water to settle, siphoning off some, drawing from just below the surface may be the best available water to use with your available treatment methods. However it should be tested carefully and in limited quantities until . 
Inspect the water before treatment. Microorganisms may be attached to or embedded in soil or other organic particles suspended in the water. The water to be treated should be allowed to stand so the suspended material settles to the bottom of the container. Coarse materials like sand will settle more quickly than finer materials suspended in the water.

During and after settling, care should be taken not to agitate the water. Water from the top of the container can be gently poured or drawn off into a second clean container. A second option for removing suspended particles is to strain the water through a clean cloth, layers of paper towels, or a paper coffee filter. Do not use a commercially available portable water filter (see “Filtration”) for this step, as the suspended material may rapidly clog such filters.

For emergency or short-term situations, water can be treated using heat, chemical treatments, or filtration. Each method has certain advantages and disadvantages that must be considered. In some situations, a combination of these methods may be preferred (e.g., filtration and chemical treatment).
Contaminants in water which may cause illness or disease include bacteria such as E. coli, protozoan cysts such as giardia or cryptosporidium, and viruses such as Hepatitis A. Giardia or cryptosporidium are not likely to be present in Nebraska groundwaters but may be found in contaminated surface waters. Viruses should be suspected in any water that may be contaminated with human waste.

Heat Treatment
Heat kills microorganisms and is the oldest effective means of disinfecting drinking water. Adequate heat treatment will kill virtually any disease-causing organism, including bacteria, cysts such as giardia and cryptosporidium, and viruses.

Heat the water to a vigorous boil for one minute, which includes an adequate safety factor. Any longer could concentrate other chemical contaminants that may be present. Since water boils at a lower temperature as elevation increases, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends boiling for three minutes at altitudes above 6,562 feet (2,000 meters).

Though boiling effectively disinfects water for drinking, it does not provide a residual (or long-term) disinfection; therefore, care must be taken not to recontaminate the water.

Boiled water may taste flat. The taste can be improved by pouring it back and forth between two clean containers to reoxygenate it or by adding a pinch of salt to each quart after it has cooled.

Chemical Treatments
Chlorine and iodine are the most commonly used chemicals for emergency disinfection of water. The killing effectiveness of the chemical depends on the concentration of the chemical in the water, the amount of time the available chemical is in contact with the water prior to use (contact time), the water temperature, and the characteristics of the water supply.

A decreased concentration of the disinfectant or a lower temperature will require a longer contact time for adequate disinfection. If the water temperature is less than 41°F (or 5°C), it should be allowed to warm prior to disinfection or the chemical dose should be doubled. If the water is cloudy, strain it through a clean cloth, layers of paper towels, or a coffee filter before treatment.

A common objection to chemical disinfection is the flavor it gives to the treated water. If flavorings of any kind are added to the water to improve taste, it should be done after the recommended contact time for disinfection. Flavorings added before adequate contact time has been achieved will “tie up” some of the chemical available for disinfection. Adding about 50 mg of vitamin C (ascorbic acid) per liter or quart of water after the contact time can improve the taste. Vitamin C is often available in 250 and 500 mg tablets where vitamin supplements are sold. Tablets should be pulverized and divided before adding to the water. In addition, freshness preservatives containing vitamin C are often available where canning supplies are sold.

Bacteria are very sensitive to chemical disinfectants such as chlorine and iodine. Viruses, cryptosporidium, and giardia require very high dosages of disinfectant or longer contact times with the disinfectant than the standard recommendations. Heat treatment is recommended if these pathogens are suspected in the water.

Chlorine. Regular household chlorine bleach that contains 4-6 percent sodium hypochlorite as the only active ingredient can be used for disinfection. Bleaches with labels such as “Fresh Wildflowers,” “Rain Clean,” “Advantage,” or labeled as scented may contain fragrances, soaps, surfactants, or other additives and should be avoided for drinking water disinfection.

For clear water, add six drops per gallon with a medicine dropper. For cloudy water, strain water through a clean cloth, layers of paper towels, or a coffee filter prior to treatment and add a larger disinfectant dose of 16 drops per gallon. Stir the water and let it stand covered for 30 minutes. For adequate disinfection, the water should have a slight chlorine odor to it after the 30 minute waiting period. If this odor is not present after the 30 minutes, repeat the dose and let it stand covered for another 15 minutes. If this odor is not present, the bleach may have lost its effectiveness due to age or exposure to light or heat.

Use the freshest chlorine bleach available. If the chlorine taste is too strong in the treated water, taste can be improved by pouring the water from one clean container to another several times.

Halazoner® tablets are another form of chlorine for drinking water disinfection. The tablets are convenient and inexpensive but may require high doses and longer contact times. Follow manufacturer directions for use. Chemical treatment with chlorine provides some protection against recontamination since some available chemical remains in the water.

Iodine. Two forms of iodine commonly sold for chemical disinfection of drinking water are tincture of iodine (2 percent) and tetraglycine hydroperiodide tablets (Globaline®, Coghlan’s®, and Potable-Aqua® are examples).

Iodine was once widely used, but is no longer recommended because health research has shown that as many as 8 percent of people have hidden or chronic thyroid, liver, or kidney disease which iodine can make worse. Iodine should not be ingested by children younger than age 14. Do not use iodine-containing products unless you have discussed the risks with your physician.

Ultraviolet (UV)
 
The SODIS treatment method is easy: A transparent PET bottle is cleaned with soap. Then, the bottle is filled with water and placed in full sunlight for at least 6 hours. The water has then been disinfected and can be drunk.

The SODIS organization recommends using 3 liter (or smaller) clear PET bottles in the application of the SODIS method because they are light and do not break. They are also easy to obtain in many regions. However, glass bottles or special bags can also be used. PET bottles are usually labelled as such, but they are not called by the same name in all countries.

If the water is very turbid, the effectiveness of the method is reduced. It is very easy to determine whether the water is sufficiently clear: The filled PET bottle must be placed on top of a newspaper headline. Now one must look at the bottom of the bottle from the neck at the top and through the water. If the letters of the headline are readable, the water can be used. If the letters are not readable, the water must be filtered.

Cloudiness affects the strength of solar radiation and thus also the effectiveness of the method.
Rule of thumb:
  • If less than half of the sky is clouded over, 6 hours will be enough to completely disinfect the water.
  • If more than half of the sky is covered with clouds, the bottle must be placed in the sun for 2 consecutive days.

The method does not work satisfactorily during lengthy periods of rain. On these days, we recommend collecting rainwater.

The treated water should be kept in the bottle and drunk directly from the bottle, or poured into a cup or glass immediately before it is drunk. In this way, it is possible to prevent the treated water from becoming contaminated again.  Note this method does not remove chemicals.

Filtration
  • Filtration is a physical process that occurs when liquids, gases, dissolved or suspended matter adhere to the surface of, or in the pores of, an absorbent medium.
  • Filtration of contaminants depends highly on the amount of contaminant, size of the contaminant particle, and the charge of the contaminant particle. Depending on the household’s water needs, pretreatment before filtration may include the addition of coagulants and powdered activated carbon, adjustments in pH or chlorine concentration levels, and other pretreatment processes in order to protect the filter’s membrane surface.
Microfiltration
  • A microfiltration filter has a pore size of approximately 0.1 micron (pore size ranges vary by filter from 0.05 micron to 5 micron);
  • Microfiltration has a very high effectiveness in removing protozoa (for example, Cryptosporidium, Giardia);
  • Microfiltration has a moderate effectiveness in removing bacteria (for example, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Shigella, E. coli);
  • Microfiltration is not effective in removing viruses (for example, Enteric, Hepatitis A, Norovirus, Rotavirus);
  • Microfiltration is not effective in removing chemicals.

Ultrafiltration

  • An ultrafiltration filter has a pore size of approximately 0.01 micron (pore size ranges vary by filter from 0.001 micron to 0.05 micron; Molecular Weight Cut Off (MWCO) of 13,000 to 200,000 Daltons). Ultrafiltration filters remove particles based on size, weight, and charge;
  • Ultrafiltration has a very high effectiveness in removing protozoa (for example, Cryptosporidium, Giardia);
  • Ultrafiltration has a very high effectiveness in removing bacteria (for example, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Shigella, E. coli);
  • Ultrafiltration has a moderate effectiveness in removing viruses (for example, Enteric, Hepatitis A, Norovirus, Rotavirus);
  • Ultrafiltration has a low effectiveness in removing chemicals.

Nanofiltration

  • A nanofiltration filter has a pore size of approximately 0.001 micron (pore size ranges vary by filter from 0.008 micron to 0.01 micron; Molecular Weight Cut Off (MWCO) of 200 to 2000 Daltons); Nanofiltration filters remove particles based on size, weight, and charge;
  • Nanofiltration has a very high effectiveness in removing protozoa (for example, Cryptosporidium, Giardia);
  • Nanofiltration has a very high effectiveness in removing bacteria (for example, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Shigella, E. coli);
  • Nanofiltration has a very high effectiveness in removing viruses (for example, Enteric, Hepatitis A, Norovirus, Rotavirus);
  • Nanofiltration has a moderate effectiveness in removing chemicals.

Reverse Osmosis Systems

  • Reverse Osmosis Systems use a process that reverses the flow of water in a natural process of osmosis so that water passes from a more concentrated solution to a more dilute solution through a semi-permeable membrane. Pre- and post-filters are often incorporated along with the reverse osmosis membrane itself.
  • A reverse osmosis filter has a pore size of approximately 0.0001 micron.
  • Reverse Osmosis Systems have a very high effectiveness in removing protozoa (for example, Cryptosporidium, Giardia);
  • Reverse Osmosis Systems have a very high effectiveness in removing bacteria (for example, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Shigella, E. coli);
  • Reverse Osmosis Systems have a very high effectiveness in removing viruses (for example, Enteric, Hepatitis A, Norovirus, Rotavirus);
  • Reverse Osmosis Systems will remove common chemical contaminants (metal ions, aqueous salts), including sodium, chloride, copper, chromium, and lead; may reduce arsenic, fluoride, radium, sulfate, calcium, magnesium, potassium, nitrate, and phosphorous.

Distillation Systems

  • Distillation Systems use a process of heating water to the boiling point and then collecting the water vapor as it condenses, leaving many of the contaminants behind.
  • Distillation Systems have a very high effectiveness in removing protozoa (for example, Cryptosporidium, Giardia);
  • Distillation Systems have a very high effectiveness in removing bacteria (for example, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Shigella, E. coli);
  • Distillation Systems have a very high effectiveness in removing viruses (for example, Enteric, Hepatitis A, Norovirus, Rotavirus);
  • Distillation Systems will remove common chemical contaminants, including arsenic, barium, cadmium, chromium, lead, nitrate, sodium, sulfate, and many organic chemicals.

Ultraviolet Treatment Systems (with pre-filtration)

  • Ultraviolet Treatment with pre-filtration is a treatment process that uses ultraviolet light to disinfect water or reduce the amount of bacteria present.
  • Ultraviolet Treatment Systems have a very high effectiveness in removing protozoa (for example, Cryptosporidium, Giardia);
  • Ultraviolet Treatment Systems have a very high effectiveness in removing bacteria (for example, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Shigella, E. coli);
  • Ultraviolet Treatment Systems have a high effectiveness in removing viruses (for example, Enteric, Hepatitis A, Norovirus, Rotavirus);
  • Ultraviolet Treatment Systems are not effective in removing chemicals.

Water Softeners

  • Water Softeners use ion exchange technology for chemical or ion removal to reduce the amount of hardness (calcium, magnesium) in the water; they can also be designed to remove iron and manganese, heavy metals, some radioactivity, nitrates, arsenic, chromium, selenium, and sulfate. They do not protect against protozoa, bacteria, and viruses.

Please remember that:

  • Point of Use (POU) water treatment systems typically treat water in batches and deliver water to a single tap, such as a kitchen sink faucet or an auxiliary faucet.
  • Point of Entry (POE) water treatment systems typically treat most of the water entering a residence. Point of entry systems, or whole-house systems, are usually installed after the water meter.
  • The treatment technologies described can be used in conjunction with each other for greater pathogen reduction. The addition of coagulants, carbon, alum, and iron salts to filtration systems may aid in chemical removal from water.

Hygiene

In addition to providing safe drinking water to your household, you can also protect yourself and others from waterborne illness by paying practicing good personal hygiene:
  • Wash hands before preparing and eating food, after going to the bathroom, after changing diapers, and before and after tending to someone who is sick.

Summary

Emergency or short-term treatment of drinking water may be necessary due to natural disasters, accidents or other situations caused by humans. Alternative drinking water sources for emergency situations and short-term use may include a stored emergency water supply that has been prepared ahead of time, bottled water, hidden sources of water within the home, and outside water sources. When a stored water supply or bottled water supply are unavailable, alternative water sources may be made acceptable for drinking by use of heat, chemical disinfection, filtration, or an appropriate combination of these methods. Each method has advantages and disadvantages, which should be considered for individual situations.

If local public health department (or water utility) information differs from the recommendations in this publication, the local information should be followed. Local officials will be familiar with site- and event-specific conditions.

After you have a good supply of water, then you can start Building your food stores the right way and then working on other important needs from the Beginner Prepper List.

Long Term Water problem:
According to National Geographic, 97% of the worlds water is salty and 2% is in polar ice caps leaving 1% as fresh water. By 2030, the needs for fresh water is expected to exceed the current supply by 50%. So we should soon expect to see seizures by the government of known private water sources.  Already it is illegal to catch and keep rain water in some places.  Even the water on your land or in your well will be community property.  Cost effective methods for the desalination of water will be essential unless there is a significant reduction in the human population on earth. This will be a serious problem, most likely during our life time, so it is something to think about and prepare for.