2021 Ammo prices average 9% lower on most grades and calibers, excluding two exceptions, .45 Long Colt, and .410 Shotgun Slugs and Buck Shot which increased up to 50%.
Ammo prices are going through cycles of prices dropping, then rising again slightly. The driver behind this is the production cycle. When Ammo producers set up their production lines, it takes time, unproductive time, so once they get them running, they like to stay running as long as possible on one product.
They will ship quantities of this ammo, to tiered customers, possibly during shortages at say 50% - 110% of what they have averaged ordering for the past 12 months. When this particular run of ammo starts arriving to sellers, prices drop.
Ideally the producers build enough inventory to last until the next production run on this product, and this ammo price holds steady. But they are not building the usual producer inventory, as other ammo, still in tight supply and selling at high prices, is more profitable, so they change to running another ammo, and this first ammo price starts going back up slightly as seller's begin to deplete their inventory.
When Ammo is in tight supply, buyers are less choosy, and buy more economy &/or imported brands at higher prices, so sellers produce more lower cost products, sell them at high prices and make more profit. That said, profit is also a function of volume. So, while low volume Ammo like a box of 45 Colt may be highly profitable, they sell very few boxes leading to very few dollars of profit. The higher volume ammo like 9mm is typically very competitive on price and lower profit per box, but lots of boxes are sold, so lots of dollars in profit. Sophisticated producers have models that consider market prices & demand (volume) along with cost (profit) and schedule their facility to optimize their profits. This drives prices that may look crazy, but there is a lot of financial logic behind them, with a number of complex factors.
When buying Ammo on-line, it is important to consider the freight cost for shipping to your address. We do not include freight in our consideration for good reason, so you must consider it in your buying decision. Below is an example of how to calculate this. When retail ammo is lower priced than on-line, which I have seen often this year, the retail option is the clear best decision. The smaller the volume you buy, the better Retail can be. Buying on-line prices typically means you must be buying higher volume to justify the shipping and handling cost.
As an avid shooter and buyer of Ammo, I don't like high prices, but as long as the Ammo producers make good profits, they will keep producing it, and make investments into new technology and capacity for the future. So, I'm willing to pay a fair price to help insure this.
Happy & Safe Shooting in 2022!
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